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First Look at Auto Market | New Energy Vehicle Buying Fever Heightened in May

By Autohome Aug 03, 2019
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 Nowadays, there is a continued depression in the whole auto market, and only the new energy vehicle market can still bring a little of warmth to it. However, the introduction of the 2019 subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, which has reduced such subsidies, will inevitably have considerable effect on the purchase costs and willingness of the customers. In the post-subsidy era after the boost against the 2018 recession, what changes will the vehicle purchase willingness of the customers have? Can the new energy vehicle market still boost as before? Next, we will have a look at the new energy vehicle buying fever analysis for May, which is based on the sales leads data from Auto Home. By using the sales leads data, we can predict the market trend within 1-3 months to come to a certain degree.

汽车之家

汽车之家


First Look at Auto Market, which is a brand-new column presenting auto market trend analyses, provides accurate and in-depth vehicle buying willingness analyses in terms of overall trend, regional trends, price interval distributions, customer preferences, etc. according to Auto Home's big data on customer behaviors, and helps you know the complete market information timely. Auto Home's customer behavior data is a tool used for auto sales. The sales leads data therein reflects the vehicle buying willingness of the customers and has a great reference value for market trend analyses. Auto Home had 110 million sales leads in 2018. Compared with the traditional sales volume-based market analyses, the sales lead-based market analyses are more forward-looking.


The analysis object in the document is the new energy passenger vehicle category, including sedan, SUV, and MPV. The vehicle type classification is based on Auto Home's vehicle type classification standard for product library. The customer purchase willingness quantity is the number of sales leads. It means the number of orders placed by the customers for their intended vehicle models on Auto Home's official website and app. According to calculations, there is a delay of three months or so from intention ordering to actual purchase. So, the sales leads in some month can predict the market trend within 1-3 months to come to a certain degree.

Overall trend: heightened vehicle buying fever and recovered PHEV buying fever

In the first place, let's explore how the new energy vehicle market will go. The customer purchase willingness quantity of new energy vehicles had the month-on-month growth of 9.5% in May as well as a year-on-year growth 26.4% higher than that in April. The customer purchase willingness quantity began to rise again after slippage. The auto market is clearly seasonal and periodical. A comparison of the vehicle purchase willingness data of this May and that of last May shows that the vehicle purchase growth rate has slowed down. The month-on-month growth rates of last March to last May were positive but became lower and lower month by month; subsidy reductions in this April led to a dramatic reduction in month-on-month customer purchase willingness quantity growth rate. However, the policy transition period will come to an end soon and the automakers will introduce promotion policies. So, the buying fever became recovered in May.

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In May 2019, the customer purchase willingness quantity of electric vehicles accounted for 52.4% of that of all the new energy vehicles, down by 0.4% on the monthly basis (fall from peak); the customer purchase willingness quantity of PHEVs accounted for 46.8%, up by 1.0% on the monthly basis (recovery after continued fall); the customer purchase willingness quantity of extended-range electric vehicles accounted for only 0.7%. On the whole, the customer purchase willingness quantity continues to increase. For the vehicle type, the preferential policy for new energy vehicles can be enjoyed, and meanwhile, there are no bottlenecks involved, such as mileage concern and charging difficulty involved in BEV vehicles. In addition, the cost of PHEV can be well controlled as the related technologies are improved. As the subsidies for new energy vehicles are gradually reduced and even abolished, PHEV may gain more advantages in the private sector when the new energy vehicle market becomes market-driven rather than policy-driven.

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● Trends of different vehicle types: the sedan buying fever continued to heighten and the SUV purchase willingness quantity accounted for a lower proportion.

In May, the purchase willingness quantity proportions of sedan, SUV, and MPV among new energy vehicles were respectively 60.5%, 36.3%, and 3.2%. In May, the proportion of the purchase willingness quantity of sedans among new energy vehicles increased by 5.2% (stopped falling and began to increase). The proportion of the purchase willingness quantity of SUVs continued to slip, down by 4.5% on the monthly basis. The proportion of the purchase willingness quantity of MPVs decreased by 0.7%, and the MPV purchase willingness of the customers was still very low. In general, the proportion of the purchase willingness quantity of SUVs was gradually reduced after a period of share expansion, and the sedan purchase fever was gradually heightened. A BEV SUV has a bigger and heavier body affecting its range, and restrictions in terms of range and charging facilities make BEV SUVs unfeasible for long-distance travel, with the result that full play cannot be given to their own advantages. According to the intention data of the customers, new energy sedans are more advantageous than new energy SUVs if used as household ones.

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 Market trends of vehicles of different manufacturers: the purchase willingness proportions of Chinese-brand vehicles decreased while those of joint venture-brand vehicles increased.

In May, the purchase willingness proportion of Chinese-brand vehicles decreased to 72.4% by 2.3% on the monthly basis. In May, the purchase willingness proportion of Joint venture-brand vehicles increased to 22.9% by 3.5% on the monthly basis. The purchase willingness proportion of foreign-brand vehicles tended to decrease. Chinese brands are still absolutely dominant in the new energy vehicle market. However, as joint ventures accelerate their arrangements in this field and more and more foreign brands enter it, the competition in the new energy vehicle market will be fiercer, and the industry chain integration will be accelerated. This is a tough test for Chinese brands that expect to surpass the competitors through selling new energy vehicles to take a shortcut. In the post-subsidy era, only the enterprises grasping core technologies truly have competitive advantages.

汽车之家

汽车之家

● Trends of regional markets: the majority of purchasers came from the cities with purchase restrictions. The customers in South China and East China were more active.

In May 2019, the five provinces with the highest purchase willingness proportions include Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Guangdong ranked first with the purchase willingness proportion of 21.8%, throwing off the other provinces. The total purchase willingness proportion of the top ten provinces in terms of sales lead quantity was up to 78.3%, down by 0.4% on the monthly basis, indicating that there was a regional concentration drop on the market. Nationwide, there are 13 provinces with increased vehicle purchase willingness proportions and 11 provinces with decreased purchase willingness proportions. In May, the vehicle purchase willingness proportions of Shandong, Henan, and Anhui have the highest growth rates, being up by 1.3%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively on the monthly basis. In May, the vehicle purchase willingness proportions of Shanghai, Beijing, and Sichuan have the highest decrease rates, being down by 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively.

汽车之家

汽车之家

Now, we know the vehicle purchase willingness distribution across the provinces. Next, let’s take a look at the vehicle purchase willingness distribution across the cities. In this May, the total vehicle purchase willingness proportion of the cities with purchase restrictions, which were main purchase forces on the auto market, was up to 51.4%. The five cities with the highest vehicle purchase willingness proportions include Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. Beijing, with the proportion of 12.4%, ranked first. The total purchase willingness proportion of the top ten cities was up to 57.0%, down by 1.1% on the monthly basis, indicating that there was a regional concentration drop on the market. Nationwide, there are 31 cities with increased vehicle purchase willingness proportions and 29 cities with decreased purchase willingness proportions. In May, the vehicle purchase willingness proportions of Zhengzhou, Jining, and Suzhou have the highest growth rates, being up by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively on the monthly basis. In May, the vehicle purchase willingness proportions of Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu have the highest decrease rates, being down by 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively.

汽车之家

汽车之家

 Market trends of different price intervals: the purchase willingness proportion of the low price interval increased while the purchase willingness proportions of the middle and high price intervals decreased.

Price is one of the main considerations before a customer buys a vehicle. So, how do the customers like vehicle kinds of different prices? Let’s take a look! In this May, the vehicle purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced below 120,000 was 3.1%, up by 1.8% on the monthly basis; the vehicle purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced between 120,000 and 200,000 was 27.2%, down by 2.0% on the monthly basis; the vehicle purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced between 200,000 and 300,000 (main price interval) was 32.2%, down by 0.4% on the monthly basis; the vehicle purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced between 300,000 and 500,000 was 12.3%, up by 1.2% on the monthly basis; the vehicle purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced above 500,000 was 5.2%, down by 0.7% on the monthly basis. An analysis of vehicle purchase willingness data within 12 months (from June 2018 to May 2019) shows the following: the purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced below 120,000 increased by 2.9%, indicating that the low-price vehicle market had a certain growth; the purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced between 120,000 and 200,000 kept dramatic growth, up by 6.3%; the purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced above 200,000 decreased by 9.2%, and the purchase willingness proportion of vehicles priced between 200,000 and 300,000 decreased significantly by 11.4%. In the future, the price interval coverage will be evener as the layout of new energy vehicle types is more comprehensive and the market will be further segmented.

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 Automaker sales lead trends: the leading automakers had stable layouts and Chinese brands were still dominant.

In the increasingly fiercer market competition, the fights of the automobile enterprises for acquiring customers are more and more serious. In May, the total purchase willingness proportion of the top ten automakers was up to 71.9%, down by 0.2% on the monthly basis, indicating that there was a regional concentration drop on the market. Among the ten automakers, there are four ones with increased purchase willingness proportion. The automaker with the highest growth rate in this aspect (2.2%) is BYD; the automaker with the highest decrease rate in this aspect (1.0%) is SAIC. Among the Top 10 automakers, there are only two joint ventures: SAIC Volkswagen and BMW Brilliance. Their vehicle purchase willingness proportions in May are respectively 7.5% and 4.0%. BYD is the most popular automaker, with its vehicle purchase willingness proportion in May up to 28.8% and having a big lead over the other automakers. It holds the first place firmly.

汽车之家

汽车之家

 Customer preferences: women like sedans more and men do not hesitate to buy vehicles.

Customers of different characteristics have some differences in vehicle consumption preferences. So, what changes can the sex difference bring to vehicle purchase willingness? Let big data answer the question! An analysis of sales lead data shows that preferences of women for sedans are stronger than those of men for sedans. In May, the vehicle purchase willingness proportion of female customers was 58.3%, being 0.9 percent higher than that of male customers. On the contrary, male customers like large-space and tough-looking vehicles, and the purchase willingness proportion of male customers for MPVs was higher than that of female customers for MPVs. The purchase willingness proportions of male and female customers for SUV and MPV vehicles decreased and their purchase willingness proportions for sedans increased to a certain degree.

汽车之家

汽车之家

汽车之家

For a new energy vehicle, who does not hesitate to buy it? A man or a woman? In this May, the purchase willingness proportion of male customers for vehicles priced below 120,000 was 19.0%, that of female customers was 22.2%, and the purchase willingness proportion of male customers was 3.2% lower than the purchase willingness proportion of female customers in the low price interval. Within the price interval between 120,000 and 200,000, the vehicle purchase willingness proportion of female customers was 3.2% lower than that of male customers. Within the price intervals above200,000, the vehicle purchase willingness proportion of female customers was 3.8% lower than that of male customers and increased on the monthly basis. Within the 200,000-300,000, 300,000-500,000, and >500,000 price intervals, the vehicle purchase willingness proportions of female customers were respectively 1.3%, 1.3%, and 1.2% lower than those of male customers. It can be seen that male customers have preference for vehicles priced in the high price intervals.

汽车之家


汽车之家

In May, the enthusiasm of the consumers for new energy vehicles began to recover. The upcoming end of the policy transition period and further promotion policies of the automakers enhanced their vehicle buying enthusiasm. In terms of vehicle type, the purchase willingness proportion for sedans continued to grow; in terms of manufacturers, the purchase willingness proportion for Chinese-brand vehicles decreased; in terms of price intervals, the purchase willingness proportion for low-price vehicles continued to increase while those for middle- and high-price vehicles decreased. The new subsidy policy will be implemented soon. Then, can the new energy vehicle market maintain the current fever? Let’s wait and see what will happen. (Source/Auto Home Industry Details)



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